The 2011 Rugby World Cup is played between 20 nations who, in the last 24 years of the Rugby World Cup, have played 448 matches against each other.
Based on the historical win rates of each of the countries taking part in past Rugby World Cups then we will see the following results at the conclusion of proceedings in New Zealand this year:
- South Africa: 87.50%
- New Zealand: 85.00%
- Australia: 80.00%
- France: 72.00%
- England: 71.00%
- Scotland: 59.00%
- Ireland: 52.00%
- Argentina: 48.00%
- Fiji: 45.00%
- Samoa: 45.00%
- Wales: 44.00%
- Italy: 35.00%
- Canada: 28.00%
- Romania: 25.00%
- Tonga: 24.00%
- Georgia: 13.00%
- USA: 12.00%
- Japan: 5.00%
- Namibia: 0.00%
- Russia: 0.00%
BUT, if we base our projections on the countries with the highest points score per individual in the tournament then the 2011 Rugby World Cup results will be as follows:
- England: 249 – Johnny Wilkinson
- Scotland: 227 – Gavin Hastings
- Australia: 195 – Michael Lynagh
- New Zealand: 170 – Grant Fox
- Argentina: 135 – Gonzalo Quesda
- Fiji: 125 – Nicky Little
- France: 124 – Thierry Lacroix
- Canada: 120 – Gareth Rees
- South Africa: 111 – Percy Montgomery
- Wales: 98 – Neil Jenkins
- Italy: 98 – Diego Dominguez
- USA: 77 – Mike Hercus
- Ireland: 70 – David Humphreys
- Samoa: 62 – Silau Laega
- Tonga: 61 – Pierre Hola
- Japan: 40 – Toru Kurihara
- Georgia: 35 – Merab Kvirikashvili
- Romania: 25 – Petre Mitu
- Namibia: 22 – Lean van Dyk
- Russia: 0 – Debut Tournament
Now rugby wouldn’t be half as entertaining if we did not have prolific try scorers so, to be fair we need to ask ourselves what the results could look like if we based our projection on the highest number of tries scored per individual in past tournaments:
- New Zealand: 15 – Jonah Lomu
- Australia: 11 – Chris Latham
- England: 11 – Rory Underwood
- Samoa: 10 – Brian Lima
- Scotland: 9 – Gavin Hastings
- South Africa: 8 – Bryan Habana
- France: 8 – Christopher Dominici
- Wales: 7 – leuan Evans
- Ireland: 6 – Brian O’ Driscoll
- Italy: 5 – Mathew Cuttia
- Argentina: 4 – Pablo Bouza
- Fiji: 4 – Vilame Satala
- Canada: 4 – Morgan Williams and Al Charron
- Japan: 4 – Eiji Kutsuki
- Romania: 3 – Marcus Tintu
- USA: 3 – Roy Nelson and Kort Schubert
- Tonga: 2 – Pierre Hola
- Georgia: 1 – No Georgian has scored more than 1 try
- Namibia: 1 – No Namibian has scored more than 1 try
- Russia: 0 – Debut Tornament
And, just to confound the critics even more, let’s predict the eventual winners of the 2011 Rugby World Cup based on the above three sets of stats – we added each position above up and the team with the lowest number came first – the weighted average is in brackets below:
- New Zealand (7)
- Australia (8)
- England (9)
- Scotland (13)
- South Africa (16)
- France (18)
- Argentina (24)
- Fiji (27)
- Samoa (28)
- Wales (29)
- Ireland (29)
- Italy (33)
- Canada (34)
- USA (45)
- Tonga (47)
- Romania (47)
- Georgia (51)
- Japan (52)
- Namibia (57)
- Russia (60)
Quite a surprise to see countries like Scotland in the above prediction whose highest place was a 4th in 1991, especially if one considers that 4 countries – New Zealand, Australia, England and South Africa – share the honour of winning previous Rugby World Cup tournaments.
Of course you could also look at the above results and say that they are representative of the teams that will play the most entertaining rugby during the course of the tournament.
Tell us, in the comments section below, who you think is gonna win the 2011 Rugby World Cup AND, more importantly WHY.
